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Exam 9: Forecasting Techniques

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Question 31

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In forecasting, what is an index?

A) It is a single measure that weights multiple indicators and provides a measure of overall expectation.
B) It is a stream of historical data, such as weekly sales.
C) It is a time series that does not have trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects but is relatively constant and only exhibits random behavior.
D) It is a measure that provides a complete forecast.

E) A) and B)
F) None of the above

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Question 32

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The data for the number of hand-held gaming devices sold for the past 5 weeks are 15 units, 20 units, 25 units, 30 units, and 17 units respectively. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects; thus, a moving average model would be appropriate. Setting k = 3 the three-period moving average forecast for week 6 is .

A) 20 units
B) 24 units
C) 30 units
D) 17 units

E) A) and D)
F) B) and D)

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Question 33

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Use the data given below to answer the following question(s) . The table provided below gives the sales details of the number of android smart phones at an electronic retail store for the past 6 weeks. The time series appears to be relatively stable, without trend, seasonal, or cyclical effects. (Hint: Optimize α value in 0.1 increments) $\begin{array} { | c | c | } \hline \text { Week } & \text { Units sold } \\\hline 1 & 88 \\\hline 2 & 44 \\\hline 3 & 54 \\\hline 4 & 65 \\\hline 5 & 72 \\\hline 6 & 85 \\\hline\end{array}$ -What is the formula used to calculate the value of at in the linear trend equation Ft+k = at + btk while using double exponential smoothing?